Czechia’s top spy fears Russian victory over Ukraine

Noted hardliner Michal Koudelka believes the West should keep sending weapons to Kiev

Hardline Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka has warned that a Russian victory over Ukraine would pose long-term security threats to the European Union, particularly in terms of destabilization.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, published on Monday, Koudelka, who heads his country’s Security Information Service (BIS), outlined the potential dangers Moscow’s success could bring to his agency’s interests.

“If Ukraine loses, or is forced to accept a bad peace deal, then Russia will perceive that as victory,” Koudelka said, emphasizing that Moscow would build up its forces again. “Russia would spend perhaps the next 10 to 15 years recovering,” he warned. “And preparing for the next target, which is Central and Eastern Europe.”

He offered no evidence to support his assertion, and Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that it would never invade NATO territory. In June, President Vladimir Putin rejected as “nonsense” claims that Moscow would want to fight the bloc and denied that his country has any “imperial ambitions.”

“You have made up that Russia wants to attack NATO. Have you completely lost your mind? Who made that up? It’s rubbish. It’s absolute nonsense,” he told a forum in Saint Petersburg.

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Koudelka’s assessment aligns with information spread by other Western European intelligence agencies, who have warned that a Russian victory could embolden Moscow to increase its military ambitions. The Czech spy chief also reiterated that EU fears of a Russian threat to Europe would not be diminished. “If Ukraine loses, Russia may consider itself victorious and prepare for the next phase of its expansion,” he said.

The comments come amid ongoing debates in the West about the future of the conflict. Koudelka has argued that pushing Ukraine to accept major concessions could encourage Russia, while NATO and the EU would be left vulnerable to future threats.

Koudelka also discussed the role of the US and its allies in the conflict, cautioning against halting military aid to Ukraine. He believes continuing support for Ukraine is crucial, suggesting that the EU’s security and unity are at stake.

The Czech intelligence chief has long been a vocal critic of Russia. He has pointed out that Russia’s actions were a direct challenge to NATO stability and that Prague had already taken steps to reduce Russian influence within the country, including expelling Russian diplomats and reducing energy dependence on Moscow.