A weakened Iran has Iraq looking to curb Tehran-backed extremists in country
The Iraqi government is looking to gain control of Iranian-aligned armed groups that operate inside of Iraq but outside state control, in yet another sign of Iran's weakened position since October 7.
With Iranian influence waning in the Middle East, the Iraqi government wants armed groups, including factions within the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), to lay down their arms and join the state security forces or integrate into the state-recognized Popular Mobilization Forces.
Iraq’s foreign minister, Fuad Hussein, recently told Reuters that armed groups operating inside Iraq and outside state control are unacceptable.
"Many political leaders, many political parties started to raise a discussion, and I hope that we can convince the leaders of these groups to lay down their arms, and then to be part of the armed forces under the responsibility of the government," Hussein told Reuters.
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There is also fear around the region, with the power vacuum left by the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and a decimated Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, that Iraq may be next to fall.
Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the collapse of the Assad regime was the precipitating moment for the Iraqi government to make its move against Iranian militias.
"Right now, the Iraqis are wondering if they are next and everyone is fearful of the toxic influence and corrosive nature of Iranian influence in the state," Schanzer said.
Foreign Minister Hussein told Reuters that he does not think Iraq is the next domino to fall.
The IRI is a group of armed Islamic resistance factions under the umbrella of the Iran-backed "Axis of Resistance." These groups are the most difficult for the Iraqi government to manage and were responsible for the attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan in January 2024. The IRI is aligned with Iran and has been engaging in armed operations against Israel and U.S. coalition forces since Oct. 7.
Also operating in Iraq are the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The PMF was formed in 2014 after Iraq’s Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, called for Iraqis to rise up and fight against the Islamic State. Tehran sent IRGC advisers, weapons and other military support to the PMF to combat ISIS, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency.
The PMF are formally recognized as an official part of the Iraqi state security forces and report directly to the prime minister.
"Current discussions revolve around how to effectively manage the so-called Islamic Resistance factions, some of which have gained media prominence since Oct. 7 while conducting armed operations under the label of Islamic Resistance in Iraq," Inna Rudolf, who studied the PMF at King’s College London, told Fox News Digital.
Many of these resistance factions, Rudolf said, have also registered brigades within the state-recognized PMF umbrella.
"The question for decision-makers remains how to neutralize these elements and mitigate the risk of dragging both the PMF and the Iraqi state into a poorly timed geopolitical escalation," Rudolf said.
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Rudolf pointed out that although Iranian proxies have been significantly weakened since Oct. 7, pressure has intensified in light of reports suggesting Israel could retaliate against Iranian groups inside Iraq.
Many observers of the region think Iraq’s attempt to rein in armed factions at this moment is a sign of Iran’s diminished position in the region.
"The fact that major security sector reform in respect to the Popular Mobilization Forces is being conducted at this time is representative of Iran's weakened role in the country and an imperative amongst more moderate forces, as well as the U.S., to seize on this and create momentum," Caroline Rose, a senior analyst and head of the Power Vacuums Program at the New Lines Institute, told Fox News Digital.
Elections in Iraq are scheduled for this fall, and Prime Minister Sudani is attempting to negotiate an acceptable form of bilateral security cooperation with the U.S., including the status of U.S. forces inside the country. The U.S. currently has about 2,500 troops serving in Iraq as part of the anti-ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve effort.
Observers of the region agreed that if Iraq is unable to demonstrate its ability to rein in rogue groups conducting armed operations against the prime minister, sustaining security cooperation with the United States, especially under President Donald Trump, could be impossible.
