Nissan may not survive 2025

Nissan is one of many automakers looking at a downright terrible financial year, with falling sales being the primary catalyst. To further stoke the fire, an executive has recently come forward stating that the Japanese automaker is in search of a new anchor investor. According to a statement given to the Financial Times, Nissan has between 12 and 14 months to survive. That means 2025 could very well be the final year for Nissan in its current state.

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Nissan needs a new anchor investor to survive

Nissan is on the brink, with falling sales and cuts to their workforce making headlines in recent months. The Japanese automaker has already cut its annual profit forecast by 70%, from $3.25 billion to just $975 million. On top of that, Renault, who saved Nissan from bankruptcy back in 1999, has reduced its stake in Nissan from 46% to less than 36%.

With its financial struggles and cost-cutting measures going into overdrive, an unnamed Nissan executive stated that the automaker has around a year to survive. As a result, the Japanese automaker is searching for a new anchor investor, likely in the form of a bank or insurance group.

“We have 12 or 14 months to survive,” a senior official told the Financial Times. "This is going to be tough. And in the end, we need Japan and the US to be generating cash."

On 7 November 2024, Mitsubishi and Nissan announced that the latter would sell a third of its stake in Mitsubishi. Nissan also plans to cut its global workforce by 9,000 and reduce its vehicle production lines from 25 to 20.

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Nissan could be the target of a takeover

Nissan's current state leaves the Japanese automaker open to outside influence that might not have the company’s long-term interest in mind. Most notably Effissimo Capital Management and Oasis Management Group, two companies known for overhauling Japanese corporations, have shown interest in Nissan.

As Renault considers reducing its stake in Nissan even further, another automaker could also be the anchor investor Nissan needs. Honda, the second-place Japanese automaker by sales, is currently working with both Nissan and Mitsubishi to share EV technology and could be one of the candidates willing to save their automotive siblings.

Not everyone has such a positive outlook on the Honda-Nissan-Mitsubishi joint venture, though. Former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn spoke to Automotive News regarding the partnership. The former leader of Nissan saw nearly 20 years of a successful partnership with Renault before the alliance faltered.

“I can’t imagine for one moment how it’s going to work between Honda and Nissan unless it’s a takeover, unless it’s a disguised takeover by Honda of Nissan and Mitsubishi with Honda in the driver’s seat,” said Ghosn. “It’s going to be a takeover, a disguised takeover.”

While Ghosn’s experience speaks volumes, his reputation and history don’t exactly put him on a pedestal. In 2019, while awaiting trial for financial crimes in Japan, Ghosn fled the country hidden in a box. He now resides in Lebanon.

Final thoughts

There is no doubt that Nissan is in trouble and the Japanese automaker can’t exactly be picky about its new anchor investor if it plans to survive past 2025. With just over a year left, Nissan needs to focus on its bottom line, increase revenue, and cut costs. While selling a third of its stake in Mitsubishi is a start, it isn’t enough to get them over this hill. In fact, it may just be a drop in the bucket if Nissan doesn’t turn things around in the next two quarters.

Unfortunately, Nissan is a marred brand in the United States, with many still doubting the reliability of their CVTs. Not long ago, Nissan unveiled its plans for the next few years, which included cutting several vehicles from the lineup.

As for a potential takeover, Honda is certainly the frontrunner in my book. The Japanese automaker could form a partnership similar to that of Toyota, Subaru, and Mazda. Honda could utilize Nissan’s EV platform, although Honda is currently collaborating with General Motors for its platform, battery, and motors in the Honda Prologue. Other than an EV platform, I’m not entirely sure what Honda would be getting out of the deal, though. Then again, I’m not entirely sure what Nissan has to offer any automaker that’s currently able to perform a takeover.

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